Finally, there is

Finally, there is information about specific events that may provide a guide. For example, in the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, an important parameter is Vladimir Putin's mental state. Nuclear war is more likely if he is angry, temperamental, humiliated, or even suicidal. Other factors include whether Ukraine succeeds in fighting off the Russian military, whether Nato gets more involved in direct military operations, and whether any major false alarms occur. These sorts of details – to the extent that we are able to learn about them – are valuable for informing our understanding of the probability of this particular event resulting in nuclear war.