Can Defensive Statistics Predict Low-Scoring Matches?

When looking at football totals, I often pay attention to how many goals teams concede. Still, a good defensive record does not always mean that the next match will be low-scoring. How do you evaluate defensive strength before choosing an under-goals market? Do you examine shots allowed, clean sheets or the quality of opponents faced?

Clean sheets can definitely be misleading, especially if a team played against weak attackers recently. I prefer looking closely at shots allowed in the penalty box and xGA metrics rather than raw shutout numbers. A great tip is checking player availability, because missing a key defensive midfielder completely changes how a team absorbs pressure. I was checking stats on yellowbet.ke yesterday and noticed a side with four straight clean sheets was actually leaking tons of high-quality chances. Context always beats basic surface stats.